I like to break up the Kelly chart into four sections: Yellow: from Zero to 1/2 Kelly is the Conservative risk area. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. Thorp famously applied it to bet sizing in blackjack when the player knows that he/she is getting a. Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is widely used by investors and gamblers to calculate how much money they should be dedicated to each investment by using a fixed percent of their assets. a standard by which you…. P – the probability of winning in decimal form. 05 as the equation will look like this: ((0. we choose our bet size so that our expected rate of capital growth is maximized. Further, suppose that on each trial the win probability is p 0 and pb — q > 0 so the game is advantageous to player A. G∞ = X∞ X0 = ∞ ∏ t = 0 Xt + 1 Xt = ∞ ∏ t = 1gt. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), is a formula for sizing a bet. 1 unitsbet365. A total of $3. We automatically calculate your ideal bet size with the Kelly Criterion and your assumptions. 28% on each bet. 1 – 1. We relate these results to population genetics, and discuss testable consequences of these findings. 켈리는 벨 연구소에서 근무하던 연구원이었는데, 어떤 전송 채널이 가질 수 있는 최대 속도를 연구하다가 이 결과를 내놓았다. As English borrows words from Latin and Greek, we. how much to bet; b is the net odds received on the. Because the Kelly Criterion seeks to calculate the optimum stake for any value bet so as to maximise that value as well as maximise the growth of your betting bankroll. England Championship free football predictions, statistics, scores, match previews and stat trends. In a previous article, we looked into how the Kelly criterion could be solved numerically in the case of multiple simultaneous and independent bets. )The Kelly Criterion is a formula developed by Bell Labs' scientist John L. 1:1 odds 0. 2nd Chance Bet up to $250. The Kelly criterion is usually used to determine the optimal investment ratio. The First. I’m not saying understanding the methodology isn’t commonplace and useful, I’m saying this isn’t how portfolios are structured. p = the probability of your bet selection winning (being correct). How to Use the Kelly Criterion. 01, we need to borrow an additional 105,460 USD in order to increase our account size to 631,510. Nicholas Yoder is a mathematician with twelve years of experience in derivatives trading and quantitative finance. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. Unlike our standard Excel betting tracker, this worksheet calculates recommended stakes using four different staking plans: level stakes, percentage stakes, square root stakes and the Kelly criterion. If you check out Wikipedia or Investopedia, you’ll see formulas like this: f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1 f ∗ = p − 1 − p b − 1. Your stake sizes will adjust as you are using the kelly criterion, so a 7. In this post, I’ll apply it to a EURUSD breakout strategy and explain some of its potential shortcomings when applied to forex trading. Appreciation of the compelling properties of the Kelly criterion may have been impeded by certain misunderstandings about it that persist in the literature of mathematical economics. For short straddles and strangles, I imagine you would use the probability of the price remaining between the two strikes until expiration. By supplying an arbitrary probability distribution modeling the future price movement of a set of stocks, the Kelly fraction for investing each stock can be calculated by inverting a matrix involving only first and second moments. Pinnacle har publicerat många artiklar på ämnet, från enkla förklaringar till komplexa analyser. Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator: Optimizing Bet Sizes. The Kelly Criterion How To Manage Your Money When You Have an Edge. Sears uses this method to determine inventory needs, while financial planners use it to optimize investment strategies for their clients’ retirement. 00. On 40. Using the same Kelly calculation as before we can now determine the optimum position size for a trade. 38 percent Kelly bet, or $53 of your current bankroll ($1,220 x 4. If we’re high-frequency traders, we may want to think twice before betting on this game. There have been over 2. Balansera reaktionsformler - PhET Interactive Simulations4. Jets vs Bills Over/Under Records: Jets Over 3-6, Bills 3-7. Never Go Full Kelly. The second was the other Python Risk Management article about Kelly Criterion was pretty popular, so I thought of expanding the topic, which the original article is found here. e. Over/Under NBA Betting (looking for 10 pts diff) qualified play = 0. This book is the definitive treatment of "Fortune's Formula," also described as "The Kelly Criterion", used by gamblers and investors alike to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. 59 minus 0. Well, say hello to Kelly’s Criterion! 14. The Kelly Criterion was the subject of an incomprehensibly bitter argument in the 1970s/1980s. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. The basic formula for the Kelly Criterion is given by: -> f^* is the optimal fraction of the bankroll to bet; -> b is the net odds received on the wager (i. 8% of your total bank roll. 2. For the gambler/investor with average luck bankroll and a fixed bet size, the expected bankroll growth after one. Up to $1,200 in Bonuses. Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Browns and Steelers, who are both 6-3 (just behind the first-place Ravens), has loomed as a big game for these teams since NFL Week 2. E. Kelly)가 1956년에 발표한 공식. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The kelly criterion is a theory that measures the long-term growth of capital. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John L. The No. a standard by which you…. If they allow the customer to bet too big in the start they might be able to win and wipe them out in one go, but forcing customers to use small bets ensures that profit approaches the expected value, which for all games is tilted in the casino's favor. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. The Kelly formula is: Kelly % = P - [ (1 - P) : R] As an example, let's say one has won 40 out of 100 trades and the total win is €6,000 while the total losses are €2,000. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as. 20. 00 being returned. 개요 [편집] 미국 의 수학자 켈리 (J. 'winP' in the expected winning probability of this particular bet. Kelly is made for known outcomes such as coin flips, table games, etc. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. class KellyCriterionStrategy (bt. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. The kelly formula helps investors to determine the optimal amount to put into a single trade. 01. The formula was derived by J. But that was not my point. " For Blackjack, when there is 1% edge, Kelly criterion says one. Kelly Criterion. Orange: 1/2 Kelly to 1 Kelly is the Aggressive risk area. PrizePicks gives bettors a new way to place a wager on the NBA. Home. May have to change the equation to get exactly like kellyKelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. , the amount of money you will win for. Full Kelly has an interesting property: there is an X% chance of your bankroll dropping to X% of what you started with 5. Call that 1 betting unit. So which is the most OPTIMAL bet to make , that grows your bankroll the. By three laps. 60 – 0. In fact, the point is precisely not to do that, because maximizing expected wealth (somewhat paradoxically) leads to almost sure ruin. The formula is as follows: Kelly Formula . a standard by which you judge, decide about, or deal with something: 2. Use fractional Kelly. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size to maximize profits on repeated investments. The Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets in order to maximize wealth. Benefits Of The Kelly Criterion The Kelly Criterion's biggest benefit is that it takes the subjectivity out of sports betting. Methods similar to those already described can be used to maximizeFull Kelly has an interesting property: there is an X% chance of your bankroll dropping to X% of what you started with 5. Check. The MetaTrader 5 Client Terminal offers a wide range of opportunities for optimization of Expert Advisor parameters. Kelly system betting provides an objective answer on how to make your bankroll grow as fast as possible. Maybe we’d rather not have optimal growth. 4)/1 = 20% or 0. the Kelly Criterion to the stock market. It takes into account your win probability and the odds being offered by the sportsbook, and provides a recommendation for the optimal bet size based on your bankroll size. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. In his post on the Kelly criterion, Zvi notes that full Kelly is only correct if you know your edge and can handle the swings. forms of gambling, including sports betting. Kelly Criterion • Developed by John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs – 1956 paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate” published in the Bell System Technical Journal • Original title “Information Theory and Gambling” – Used Information Theory to show how a gambler with inside information should betThe Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds. “Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J. and the second part is the optimization of that strategy through Kelly criterion. Instead of using the adjusted Kelly criterion for spread/total sports, I focus on the discrepancy between my numbers and the bookmakers’ numbers to determine the weight of my stakes. And not just wrong but SO WRONG that anyone who believed it was an idiot. The great thing about the formula is that it’s flexible enough to work where information or skills can give you an advantage by estimating the outcome probabilities. 9 it is evident Kelly criterion has outperformed the equal weighted portfolio. ContentsAccording to the Kelly criterion, the probability of getting a return of -5 or less in this example is only 5. Suppose we have initial capital X 0 and we want to determine the optimal betting fraction f to invest each year in S&P 500 stocks. The Kelly criterion proposes to choose f so that g(f) is maximized. Kelly Criterion gambling is especially popular in sports betting and can potentially help you become a successful bettor. While this formula is great, it still only. Kelly betting is aggressive when appropriate and allows you to pull back when necessary. You might also enjoy. The player wagers x x and grabs a single jelly bean randomly from the bag. Oh yeah Kelly criterion is what I mean by bet spread. Kelly criterion [33], which requires both win/loss probabilities and betting odds for optimal sizing in binomial games. 70% of 1 = 0. The picture above has 2 simulations of betting at 20%, 50%, and 75% and 4 at the Kelly Criterion amount. Its objective is to help students, academics and practitioners to build investment portfolios based on mathematically complex models with low effort. The most used example is, flipping a coin where every time you call it correctly, you will get 2 to 1. The Kelly Criterion has many critics; primarily because we cannot exactly measure the probability of winning (in horse racing, at least) and is only works where we have a large number of identical events (no two horse races are identical. In one study, [5] [6] each participant was given $25 and asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. VALUE BETS based on Contrarian Bets and Kelly Criterion. While it is tempting to try to run up a big bankroll simply by knowing about the sports and teams that you are wagering on, that strategy fails to take into account important factors such as bankroll management. Learn more. how much to bet. Click on the odds you like to place a bet. And not just wrong but SO WRONG that anyone who believed it was an idiot. To increase it to 5. The formula is as follows: Where: K % = The. At the beginning it is a struggle to make money consistently with trading. 1:20. We compare and contrast three types of utility theories:The Kelly criterion is a well-known strategy for sizing bets to maximize long-run expected log wealth. 18 % of your account balance on this particular selection. For this offer, deposit at least $10 into your new account and make an opening bet of at least $5. John Larry Kelly Jr. 19 probability the investment breaks even, and with 0. Suppose player A wins b units for eve1Y unit wager. To calculate the optimal bet size use Kelly's criterion . Click on the “Calculate” button to calculate the recommended % of bankroll and stake based on the Kelly criterion formula. In particular our account equity is 126,050 USD on a portfolio of 526,050, which means that the current leverage factor is 4. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. 00. This value should be in decimal format (e. Written By: Cole Rush. Lets try to calculate the optimal fraction numerically. It emerged from statistical work done by John Kelly at Bell Laboratories in the 1950s. 124 2 = 5. Bettors can also modify the Kelly formula to suit their needs and tolerance to risk. The October handle surpasses the prior Louisiana monthly handle record of $282. The conclusion is: Kelly Criterion is the numerical expression of the attitude of the gaming company to a certain result of the game. In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so that your own funds grow exponentially. Kelly criterion: While the formula is a bit different from the other metrics we have here , what the number tells you (percentage) is the size of the positions you should be taking. AlgorithmicTrading. cash or bonds). Kelly Criterion. g. The Kelly Criterion is most often used by card counters. Kelly criterion for multiple mutually exclusive outcomes: A numerical approach. The classic gambler thought to maximize expected value of wealth, which meant she What is Kelly's Formula. I like to break up the Kelly chart into four sections: Yellow: from Zero to 1/2 Kelly is the Conservative risk area. b is the net odds received on the wager (“ b to 1″); in the example above, it would be 1. Below is an explanation of how to apply the generalised Kelly Criterion to betting: Step - 1: List all possible outcomes for the entire set of bets. 39 - 5. Florida sports. Don't make this mistake ever again. It was first used by gamblers in the betting industry before its application was extended to investing. W = The win percentage of the trading strategyLearn how to make high probability bets and make income at the link below"WELCOME20" to get $20 off your first month!Kelly Crite. As mentioned earlier, the Kelly Criterion is a variable after the probability and odds variables, and when this variable is expressed in the form of the index. 6=g/q. Tim Byrnes, Tristan Barnett. 890. 1-p)Enter the number of times you’ll place the sequence of wagers. What is the Kelly Criterion? Kelly developed a formula that helps you determine the bet size you should place in proportion to your bankroll and the perceived edge. Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets. 00, with a winning probability of 0. We develop a general framework for applying the Kelly criterion to stock markets. Never Go Full Kelly. 20 or 20%. The point of “Kelly” bet sizing is to risk more when your probability of winning is higher and less when it’s lower. You get the only answer one can reasonably expect: if. On this page you'll find a Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator. 6 Profit = 1 Loss = 1 #Betting percentage for the differnet scenarios a = kelly (PercentageOfOdds,Profit,Loss) b = a/2 # Half Kelly c = a*2 # Double Kelly # Creating the monte carlo simulation with the for statements Saving all results in a list before changing. That being said, applying full Kelly bet sizes can still be risky. This system, in essence, lets you know. BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, BetRivers, Bet365, and. Kelly criterion tells you exactly what you want to know -- what percentage of my bankroll should I be betting every turn in order to maximize my gains while minimizing my losses. win/lose). 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-point, it would make sense that an optimal solution would bet the same fraction, f, of your money for every trial. 12 Aggies moved up in the rankings on. This paper shows the theoretical framework of the Kelly criterion as a portfolio optimization method. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. The closer to 1 you get, the better. Over time, on. The % of Bankroll represents the optimal percentage of. ) Your starting bankroll is however much you want to spend on betting. Further, suppose that on each trial the win probability is p > 0 and pb - q > 0 so the game is advantageous to player A. 5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly. We take the view that the determination of the optimal wagering fraction f is a statistical problem where the probability p of placing a winning wager is an unknown parameter. Kelly Criterion • Developed by John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs – 1956 paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate” published in the Bell System Technical Journal • Original title “Information Theory and Gambling” – Used Information Theory to show how a gambler with inside information should bet Disclosure. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. Kelly Calculator is a calculator for investments based on the Kelly Criterion. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. From the framework described in Section 2, we know that the Kelly criterion k(p) is the optimal value of f. If we win (with probability p , assuming we bet on heads) we’ll have S + x, and if we lose (with probability 1 − p ), we’ll have S − x. However, unlike in the previous situation we examined the Kelly Criterion for, there is not a nite number of outcomes of a bet on a security, so, we will useCRITERION meaning: 1. If you need help finding some winners, we have got you covered with our best NBA PrizePicks for tonight, Monday, Nov. The second is the win/loss ratio. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. That is, the odds of success/failure and the gains/losses are known. The author initiated the practical application of the Kelly criterion by using it for card counting in. For vertical spreads with well-defined profit-loss profiles, I imagine you would use the probability of the spread expiring at max profit as your “probability of success” in the Kelly Criterion equation. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. The goal of the equation is this: don’t go broke. 36: Understanding the Kelly Criterion. Learn more. Identifying these higher probability trades is central to your success. Aug 27, 2021. 7. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. 4. However, if you break down the problem, into small easy-to-handle constituent parts and make consistent progress on improving your system every day it can eventually become very successful. while reducing volatility. The Kelly Criterion: Implementation, Simulation and Backtest In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree: Master in Statistics (M. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Kelly Criterion is a simple formula that determines the bet size for the highest growth in repeated games. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. Despite playing away, Manchester City is the slight favorite to win. e. Firstly, we show how an intraday trading strategy based on Swedish stock market index OMXS30 can be developed. . 2. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. The Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula which accepts known probabilities and payoffs as inputs and outputs the proportion of total wealth to bet in order to achieve the. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. 00 x 0. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Theoretically, the Kelly criterion states that the optimal strategy is to allocate a fraction of available capital to each borrower. The Kelly criterion for the stock market. concerned with maximizing their wealth, using the Kelly criterion when sizing their portfolio positions makes perfect sense. 50 x 0. L. So if you’re betting on the favorite, such as. At FanDuel, you can parlay Hall (+125) and Johnston (+340) to score a touchdown tonight. In January 1961, I spoke at the annual meeting of the American Mathematical Society on “Fortune's Formula: The Game of Blackjack”. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. We've actually covered the binary Kelly Criterion and the single-asset Kelly Criterion before - so check those articles out for some more background. 5. We’ll break down betting odds and props for the game and feature our official Eagles vs. Kelly, Jr in 1956. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. 19 = 141. 00. Profit-factor is a nice matrix for using as fractional-size. 67% of your account balance on a single trade. Your 'odds offered' are '2 to 1' (so enter 2 ). For example, in the game we're playing, when you put up equal amounts of money, you want to bet (2p-1) of your bankroll, where p is your chance of winning (here, 55%. All you. The Kelly criterion is a money management system that’s used by many professional traders and hedge funds. edge2 edge2+σ2 = σ2 market σ2 market+σ2. Here, we will give out our favorite NBA player props for tonight’s slate. We have 4. The method is based on a mathematical formula designed to enhance expected returns while reducing the risk involved. Jets vs Bills best odds to win Super Bowl: Jets +17000. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. (2017). Adjust your Kelly fraction by your posterior uncertainty. 19 = 141. 2023. 8% stake really just means you are betting 7. Up to $1,000 on Caesars. Latane (1959, 1978) introduced log utility as an investment criterion to the finance world independent of Kelly’s work. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps gamblers determine optimal bet sizes and maximize profits. Dr. This leads us to the optimal betting amount called the kelley criterion: f∗ = pb − qa ab f ∗ = p b − q a a b. 3) / 3] = 0. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. The underlying mathematical formula is: x = (yp – q) / y; where x is the fraction of. Following this formula, it’s calculated that you stake 80% of your bankroll on the proposed bet. It can seem counterintuitive in real time. Over a 24-month period, with probability 0. [2]원래 켈리 기준은 에지가 있는 일련의 단순 베르누이 베팅, 즉 각 베팅의 예상 수익이 양수일 때 상금의 장기적인 성장을 극대화하는 전략을 제공합니다. How to use the Kelly Criterion to manage money based on your stock trade history. Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets. It was first used by gamblers in the betting industry before its application was extended to investing. Q – the probability of losing in decimal. Updated: Nov 17, 2023. 67%, which means to realize maximum account growth, you may risk up to 6. The Kelly criterion is a money management system that’s used by many professional traders and hedge funds. Suppose the following game: A jar contains 10 10 jelly beans. Losing the first bet and winning the second will lose $4 more. That means 55 (the percentage probability you think your bet will win). A simplified definition would describe this method. Use fractional Kelly. Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets. Please, remember, the game started. Focusing, like Kelly, on simple intuitive versions of the expected log criteria, he suggested that it had superior long run properties. Intertemporal portfolio choice is the process of allocating one's investable wealth to various assets, especially financial assets, repeatedly over time, in such a way as to optimize some criterion. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. If the expection is not positive, then f∗ ≤ 0 f ∗ ≤ 0 and the optimal amount to bet is to not (obviously). 62. However, until recently application of the Kelly criterion to multivariate portfolios has seen little analysis. A = 70% – 30% = 40% = 0. It is also helpful for gamblers as it determined the maximum amount. This is literally what casino's use to make rules about customer bet sizes to avoid their own ruin. This equates to a 4. Graph functions, plot points, visualize algebraic equations, add sliders, animate graphs, and more. Investing the right amount of money. Our preseason 2023 conference projections for every FBS team. p = the probability of your bet selection winning (being correct). The same principle would work for any investment with an expectation of being profitable. Here, we will take a look at the odds of winning the Big. 65) – 0. Won 3. PrizePicks gives bettors a new way to place a wager on the NBA. 켈리 자신도 1956년의 논문에서. Kelly Criterion • Developed by John Kelly, a physicist at Bell Labs – 1956 paper “A New Interpretation of Information Rate” published in the Bell System Technical Journal •. Although it is nearly impossible to beat the house, it is certainly possible to maximize your odds of success by utilizing proper strategy. The casino is willing to pay 2 to 1 on any bet you make. 5. Kelly Criterion An Application of the Kelly Criterion on an Intraday Trading Strategy Based on the Swedish Stock Market Index OMXS30 Mårten Hagman . Developed by John Kelly, who worked at Bell labs, the Kelly Formula was created to help calculate the optimal fraction of capital to allocate on a favorable bet. Red: 1 Kelly to 2 Kelly is the Over-Aggressive risk area. In The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion, he explains how traders can apply this formula to the financial markets. Kelly Criterion Advantages. 1 Context. Romania free football predictions, statistics, scores, match previews. The Kelly criterion, which was first introduced by John R. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. Imagine how cool it would have been to be a fly on the wall when Thorp and Claude Shannon were having conversations at MIT. The role of Kelly value in game result prediction. Conclusion. 3 million established in Jan. 20 or 20%. New Jersey Devils (7-3-1, 3-8 ATS) The Devils are coming off a big win over the Blackhawks, but the schedule gets harder tonight with one of the top teams in hockey. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. FC U. Up to $1,000 on Caesars. Where: B – multiple of the bettor’s stake. Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. It’s mathematically possible using the Kelly criterion. CFR Cluj - UTA Arad 25/11/2023 10:30. In its simplest version, the percentage of your account that you trade is equal to the probability of the trade going up minus the probability of it going down. The Kelly Criterion is 6. Parameters: win_p : float, probability of winning. 2. Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. ET with Cavaliers vs. If outcome i i happens, you multiply your bet by bi b i (and get back the original bet as well). Vegapit. 52 -1 = 0. Florida sports betting is legal again. 2nd Chance Bet up to $250. 45)/ (2. Chiefs prediction for this primetime showdown. In a typical. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the median of the terminal wealth. Disclosure. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Odds betting tool that uses the Kelly Criterion FormulaCan be any positive number. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956.